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Review of the logistics services market in the segment of groupage cargo transportation in Ukraine. 2016 (article: 26317 25375)
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Review date: September 2016
Payment method: cash or bank transfer, prepayment
Method of receipt: by email or courier in electronic or printed form
Number of pages: 24, Arial, 1 spaced, 10 point
Graphs and charts: 8
Tables: 10
1. general characteristics groupage cargo market in Ukraine3
1.1. Analysis of market development trends in 2014-6 months. 2016 (plus factors influencing the development of the industry)
1.2. General market indicators, calculation of the capacity of the logistics services market in 2014-6 months. 2016 in monetary terms (including allocation of the market share of groupage cargo in the structure of the logistics services market) - estimated
2. Main logistics operators in the consolidated cargo market in Ukraine
2.1. List of the main operators in the groupage cargo market, a brief description of their activities, ratings by the volume of storage space - based on the availability of information
2.2. Degree of competition and risks
3. Price and pricing on the consolidated cargo market in Ukraine
3.1. Average prices by operator by type of service - by calling
3.2. Description of factors influencing price formation, structure
3.3. Price and pricing in the use of warehouse real estate. Basic rental rates
5. Investment attractiveness of the industry
5.1. SWOT - analysis of market direction
5.2. Risks and barriers to entry into the market
Description of the main operators of the groupage cargo transportation market in Ukraine
Description of the main operators of the market for logistics transportation of groupage cargo in Ukraine
Basic parameters for assessing the competitive environment of the market under study
Assessment of the competitive environment in the groupage cargo transportation market
Results of assessing the competitive environment in the Ukrainian groupage cargo transportation market
Average cost of warehouse processing and storage services in Ukraine, in 2015, UAH
SWOT analysis of the groupage cargo transportation market
Risks and barriers in the Ukrainian logistics services market
List of graphs, diagrams and diagrams:
Dynamics of changes in the volume of industrial production compared to the same period of the previous year in 2014 - 1st half. 2016
Dynamics of volume change foreign trade in comparison with the same period of the previous year in 2014 - 1st half. 2016 in monetary terms
Dynamics of cargo transportation volume in Ukraine in 2014 - 1st half. 2016 in physical terms, billion t/km
Dynamics of the volume of the cargo transportation services market in Ukraine in 2014 - 1st half. 2016 in monetary terms, billion UAH
Dynamics of the market volume of cargo transportation services in the groupage cargo segment in Ukraine in 2014 - 1st half. 2016 in monetary terms, billion UAH
Dynamics of the groupage cargo market segment (according to advertisements) in Ukraine in 2014 - 1st half. 2016 in monetary terms, billion UAH
Forecast of the volume of groupage cargo transportation in Ukraine in 2016 - 2018. in monetary terms, UAH
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For the transport industry, 2015 turned out to be a difficult year - sanctions, rising taxes, falling foreign trade volumes and consumer demand led to significant changes in the market - in the new economic conditions, companies had to choose not only new routes, but also alternative views transport. Today, most experts note that a serious crisis has already begun in the industry and this is confirmed by statistics.
According to Rosstat, over the past four years, cargo turnover has remained virtually unchanged, despite the positive dynamics of foreign trade. In January-December 2015, it even grew by 0.5% and amounted to 5089.6 billion ton-kilometers. However, behind these stable data lies a very unpleasant circumstance: during the same period, there was an annual decline in the volume of transported cargo. If in 2012 8.5 million tons were transported, then in 2015 less than 7.5 million tons. At the same time, the decline compared to last year was more than 5%.
Today, road freight carriers, which account for the bulk of loading, are losing market share, while the ocean and rail segments are expanding. This is due to the fact that in physical terms both imports and exports of most consumer goods decreased significantly, and it was they that were transported by road. Imports of food products, equipment, and household chemicals have decreased several times. At the same time, due to the low exchange rate of the ruble, Russia has increased export supplies of many raw materials - oil, gas, grain, metals, which are supplied abroad by sea and other modes of transport. Sanctions and the food embargo also played a role: with a decrease in trade with Europe, the share of countries in the Asia-Pacific region, which, from a logistics point of view, to a greater extent tied to other methods of cargo delivery.
Ultimately, road transport fell by 7% to 5 billion tons, while maritime transport increased by 18% to 18.3 million tons. At the same time, the volume of loading by rail, inland waterway, air and pipeline transport remained unchanged.
The volume of road transport fell by 12% already in January last year, when Russia's foreign trade turnover collapsed by 34%. The devaluation of the ruble partly helped Russian road carriers - by the end of the year, domestic exporters significantly increased the volume of deliveries of certain products, but they failed to improve the situation in the industry - the demand for their services decreased, and a decrease in the volume of transported cargo was observed monthly.
Motor carriers are also faced with other problems: costs for transportation services, fuel and leasing payments have increased, and high loan rates continue to stifle business. The increased tariffs for CASCO and MTPL did not add to optimism.
However, economic difficulties pale in comparison with the “care and support” that our state provided to carriers.
At the beginning of 2015, the problem with TIR Carnets had not been resolved - customs authorities limited its use in Russia, as a result of which almost the entire transit flow was concentrated into one narrow corridor in the North-Western Federal District. As a result, transit through Russia has become even less attractive than before, and the decline in trade with EU countries ultimately hit companies in this region the hardest. Based on the results of January-October 2015, the volume of road freight transportation from Europe to Russia fell by 34%.
Also, over the past year, the order of the Ministry of Transport dated August 21, 2013 No. 273 “On approval of the Procedure for equipping vehicles with tachographs” was actively implemented. These devices not only had to be installed on all vehicles at your own expense, but also had to be regularly maintained.
By the end of the year, the state decided to finally finish off the industry and introduced a fee for the passage of heavy trucks on federal roads - the so-called “Platon” system. The fare was set at 1.53 rubles per 1 km of travel. For most carriers, this resulted in a multiple increase in costs - for example, Danon notes that its transportation costs have doubled. Many small businesses are now forced to leave the market altogether - payments exceed their monthly earnings.
Although analysts predict that the introduction of Plato will ultimately cause an increase in consumer prices, road carriers cannot shift the increased costs entirely onto the shoulders of their customers - due to falling demand, companies are simply unable to increase tariffs and are forced to operate at a loss. According to Rosstat, tariffs for road freight transportation showed the smallest increase compared to other modes of transport - over the year they grew by only 6%, while the overall increase in tariffs was 11.5%.
Although road transport much more convenient in terms of logistics and delivery times, economic factors and administrative barriers led to the fact that by the end of the year, cargo flow began to increasingly shift to the railway. After the Platon system was introduced in November, rail traffic in December increased by 1%, while during the remaining months it did not exceed last year's figures.
However, not everyone is ready to switch to rail transport today. For owners of small and medium-sized cargo, transportation by rail still remains unprofitable: the door-to-door delivery principle does not work, it is more difficult to plan deliveries, and it is necessary to incur additional costs associated with loading and unloading goods. Market participants are also stopped by sharply increased tariffs - at the beginning of 2015 for all Russian Railways transportation they increased by 10%, and in addition to this federal Service according to tariffs, it established the maximum permissible deviation from it. As a result, Russian Railways introduced a tariff surcharge of 13.4% for the transportation of a number of exported goods, including such key goods as oil and petroleum products, grains and metal products. After such reforms, the demand for rail transportation decreased - this can be seen especially clearly in the indicators of the first half of the year. Moreover, some enterprises whose activities are closely related to transportation have completely chosen to reduce production, especially against the backdrop of declining demand for it from China. Thus, despite the growth in physical export volumes, the volume of rail transportation of oil and petroleum products (-2%), construction materials (-7.3%), cement (-20%), and scrap ferrous metals (-11%) fell.
On average, according to Rosstat, tariffs increased by 12.9%. At the same time, the profit of Russian Railways in the first half of the year increased eightfold - to 18.26 billion rubles. In 2016, tariffs are planned to increase by another 9%, and ultimately this will also affect consumers.
The situation in maritime transport is a little better; in 2015, the volume of maritime cargo transportation amounted to 118.1 million tons, an increase of 17% compared to last year. The increase was dictated mainly by foreign trade reasons - the physical volumes of exports of goods supplied to Asian countries have increased, which can be seen especially clearly since the fall of 2015. In December, traffic volumes increased by 62% compared to the same month last year.
Along with the growth in maritime transport volumes, the cargo turnover of ports also increased - in January-December it amounted to 676.7 million tons, which is 5.7% higher than the same period last year. At the same time, export cargo showed the greatest growth - 539.1 million tons (+7.7%). Transshipments of coal (+6%), grain (+15.1%), ferrous metals (+12.2%), and timber cargo (+10.7%) increased.
At the same time, the best dynamics were shown by the ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin (+10.2%), as well as the Far East (+5.2%). It is on them that the key export flows of domestic raw materials abroad are concentrated.
Due to the high transport costs of road and rail transport, more and more companies are choosing new methods of transporting goods. Freight transportation by ferry almost doubled, and the turnover of coastal shipping increased by 15.6% - up to 56.1 million tons. Despite projects for the development of port and railway infrastructure, the creation of access roads and terminal and logistics centers, the use of road transport and the subsequent transshipment of goods onto ships is still a priority. Cargo delivery to seaports by road increased by 12.3% to 54.2 million tons.
River transport has not yet become a popular alternative for carriers; mainly bulk cargo and mineral raw materials are transported along rivers in Russia, and transportation is carried out by companies located within transport accessibility from the waterway. However, there have been some changes here too - the volume of shipments from ports via inland waterways increased 2.5 times to 346 thousand tons, with dry cargo almost five times. The devaluation of the ruble made the purchase of imported goods significantly more expensive, and the savings forced foreign trade participants to choose a cheaper method of transportation over long distances.
The volume of air cargo transportation in Russia is small - according to Rosstat, only 1.1 million tons of cargo were transported in 2015. Mostly goods sent by international mail arrive in Russia by air: equipment, clothing, printed products, food and other goods consumer consumption. The largest market share is occupied by cargo imported from non-CIS countries. In the first half of the year, traffic volumes increased steadily compared to last year, but further weakening of the ruble since August led to a decline in purchases of foreign goods and, as a consequence, in air cargo volumes.
According to the Federal Air Transport Agency, the volume of international cargo transportation fell by 8.7%, and domestic traffic by 14.2%. However, the real scale of the decline is much wider - the largest share of the cargo transportation market is occupied by the AirbridgeCargo company - it accounts for 58% of the total volume of transported cargo. At the same time, the company primarily carries out international transit, and most of its cargo reaches Russia only during an intermediate landing. A similar situation is observed at Aeroflot and a number of other companies. Transit traffic, which has shown growth this year, is counted as international by statistics authorities, but it is not linked to production or prices.
Meanwhile, other problems are brewing in the industry - international sanctions, rising fuel prices and increasing costs for servicing the aircraft fleet have also led to rising costs against the backdrop of declining demand, and after Transaero left the market, many routes are still not closed by other carriers .
Thus, today the reduction in foreign trade flows has had a negative impact on the cargo transportation market, and the devaluation of the ruble and the fall in oil prices have led to increased costs not only for individual companies, but also for entire industries. Today, there is a reduction in investment and a freeze in construction everywhere. At the same time, the state continues to tighten the screws more and increase taxes, leaving no room for development for the market.
Alexander Ermakov, director of the Transport and Logistics practice at the consulting company Strategy Partners Group, spoke about an assessment of one of the most opaque segments of the logistics services market - the organization of groupage cargo transportation.
Let's start with the definition first. What is the transportation of groupage cargo?This is the transportation of several goods belonging to different shippers and consignees in one vehicle. The segment in question includes the transportation of consolidated cargo weighing from approximately one kilogram to ten tons. Consolidated cargo of lesser mass belongs to the category postal items. Mail transportation is another segment.
Of course, shipments as part of groupage cargo take longer to travel than with direct delivery, since they need to go through at least two terminals, where batches are formed/disbanded and await the flight to the destination city. For clients using the groupage cargo transportation service (which is mainly legal entities) low cost is more important than speed of delivery. This is the main advantage of this type of cargo transportation: logistics companies operating in this segment reduce the transport costs of their clients by consolidating various shipments to an economically justified volume of transportation.
The Russian logistics market, including the groupage cargo transportation segment, is considered one of the most opaque. What is the reason for the lack of statistics on the market?
Let's start with the fact that in Russia there is no regular collection of data regarding the segment, and market players are usually not inclined to disclose detailed information about their activities. These are mainly non-public companies, and there are quite a lot of them - this is not the case when there are 3-4 large overwhelming players, by which one can judge what the market as a whole is. For example, the situation with the rail transport market is completely different - it can be determined with an accuracy of one tonne-kilometer, because the services are provided by one company and full records are kept. But in the case of the groupage cargo transportation segment, we can only talk about some possible range.
You can find statistics on OKVED code 63.40, “Organization of cargo transportation,” but this includes the organization of transportation of both consolidated and non-consolidated cargo, forwarding, customs brokerage and other logistics activities. In a word, statistics combine many different segments into one category, so it is impossible to understand from it the volume of the segment that interests us. Therefore, we are forced to rely on expert assessments, and it is desirable that they be tied to at least something.
What assessment methodology did you use, and how large is this segment in relation to the overall logistics services market in Russia?
In our study, we looked at the situation in those countries where it was possible to obtain the necessary statistics - primarily the USA. Statistics are also collected in Western Europe, but there the structure of the transport and logistics market is fundamentally different, for example, transportation of raw materials - coal, ore, and so on - is insignificant. The USA is somewhat closer to Russia - both in distance and in the structure of cargo turnover. What we call groupage cargo is divided into two categories: parcels and Less than truckload - the border between them is around 70 kg. We calculated the share of these two segments in the total cargo transportation market - in the USA it is 7.2% - and made an expert adjustment for the Russian market, arriving at a figure of 4%. Based on assessment Russian market transport services, given by RBC.research, we get that in monetary terms, these 4% amount to approximately 70 billion rubles.
However, you need to understand that this is not an exact estimate, but rather a mathematical expectation of the segment’s volume, that is, there is some kind of confidence interval: plus or minus 10-15 billion rubles.
Experts have been predicting rapid growth of the logistics market in Russia for more than ten years, but it is not happening. How can you explain this?
These predictions are based on a comparison of the share of the logistics segment with the total volume of the transport and logistics services market in developed countries, which can reach 50%. In Russia, this figure is approximately 15%, and it is not yet possible to expect it to rise to Western levels. I think this is due to the structure of our economy, which is focused primarily on the raw materials component, and when transporting coal, metal, and so on, the need for logistics services is less than when transporting goods with high added value.
Are there large players in the market with a significant share? Is market consolidation possible in the near future?
For now major players in this segment – Zheldorekspedition, Business Lines have a share of 10-15%. In my opinion, there are no objective prerequisites for consolidation. That is, it will practically not work here as a means of increasing efficiency and reducing costs through economies of scale. Companies can exist quite happily in this segment and make a competitive offer, even those operating on the same route, say, Moscow-Irkutsk. Low barriers to entry for new companies. Of course, isolated acquisitions can occur, but it is unlikely that a situation will arise in which one of the players will have 50% of the market.
What is your forecast for market development in the short term?
The main trend is a significant change in its structure. We can expect a gradual displacement of traditional “collectors” from the “parcels” subsegment courier companies, as has happened in the US over the past 30 years. For example, DPD and Pony Express are already quite active in it.
Perhaps the position of rail transportation will change slightly. There was a tendency for their share to decrease, but if, as is currently planned, tolls for heavy vehicles on federal highways are introduced in December 2014, then a reverse trend may arise for some period.
The much talked about crisis is unlikely to have a significant impact on this segment. Yes, volumes from current customers will decrease, but new ones will come who previously shipped goods in whole trucks, but due to the fall in volumes they will reorient themselves to groupage transportation.
It is most likely that the volume of the segment will continue its inertial growth and by 2020 will reach 80 billion rubles under the pessimistic scenario and 100 billion rubles under the optimistic scenario.
Alexander Ermakov, Director of the Transport and Logistics practice of the consulting company Strategy Partners Group
Alexander Ermakov has been managing projects in leading consulting companies for more than 11 years. He has implemented several dozen different projects in the field of developing development strategies, functional strategies, organizational models, business plans for the largest Russian and foreign companies. Alexander's specialization: transport and logistics, strategic planning, investment analysis and business planning, restructuring of holding structures.Education:
- Institute of Oil and Gas Business. Oil and Gas Business Manager Diploma
- MSTU im. Bauman. Academic degree of Candidate of Economic Sciences
- Moscow State Linguistic University. Translator's diploma
- MVTU im. Bauman. Diploma in Mechanical Engineering (Hons)
From 2002 to 2007 Alexander headed the property relations department of OAO LUKOIL, where he prepared, examined and monitored transactions with shares, participation interests and large property assets of LUKOIL group organizations.
Information about Strategy Partners Group
Strategy Partners Group (www.strategy.ru) is a Russian strategic consultant, part of the Sberbank of Russia OJSC group of companies. The company assists clients in carrying out transformations that promote the effective use of intellectual, material and financial resources to ensure competitive leadership and sustainable growth.
Strategy Partners Group was founded in 1994 and is managed by a group of managers with experience in leading international consulting firms. Clients include leading corporations operating in Russia, Kazakhstan and other CIS countries, as well as federal and regional authorities.
The structure of the general cargo transportation market in Russia traditionally includes cargo transportation by all types of transport: railway, pipeline, road, sea, inland waterway and air transport.
To analyze the general situation in the cargo transportation market, the same indicators of the total volume of cargo transportation in physical terms, calculated in million tons, as well as indicators of total cargo turnover, calculated in million tons-km
It should be noted that the data on the basis of which the studied structures were formed were taken from Rosstat sources. However, it can definitely be said that these data are distorted due to incorrect provision of information by market participants for the purpose of tax evasion. Therefore, this information should be used to analyze a dynamic situation, which is less affected by data distortion and allows us to give big picture market development.
According to the FSGS, the structure of Russia's cargo turnover is as follows: 48% of all cargo turnover is carried out using pipeline transport, 45% using railway transport and only 5% using road transport.
However, when calculating the market volume, we focus on the volume of cargo transportation in physical terms, calculated in million tons. Analyzing the dynamics of industry development in these indicators, we see that the leading position (about 70%) belongs to road freight transportation, and the volume of freight transport by rail and pipeline is several times smaller. This difference in the structural distribution by mode of transport (in terms of freight turnover, road transport occupies 5%, and in terms of freight traffic - 68.1%) occurs because when calculating freight turnover, the duration of transportation (million tons-km) is also taken into account, whereas when calculating transportation volume - only the volume in million tons. And since the majority of the structure of road freight transportation is made up of intra-city and intra-regional transportation, which is short-distance transportation, then, despite the large volume of transportation, they constitute a very small part of the total freight turnover in Russia.
The dynamics of cargo transportation volumes by mode of transport is as follows:
Cargo transportation by mode of transport (million tons)
The structure of the Russian freight transportation market in Russia by mode of transport (in%) for the first half of 2012 is presented in the diagram:
As mentioned above, we operate in the commercial cargo transportation market, therefore, when analyzing the commercial cargo transportation market, we take into account only cargo transportation by public transport. Also in the structure of commercial cargo transportation, Rosstat also includes industrial rail transportation, and this indicator includes cargo transported along the access roads of industrial and other organizations. The total volume of transportation of this indicator is defined as the sum of goods accepted from public railways and transferred to these railways, as well as goods transported along access roads within these organizations without access to the public network, therefore, in the analysis, we exclude transportation by rail industrial transport, taking into account only public railway transport.
Data on commercial cargo transportation over time are presented in the following table:
Analyzing the dynamics of commercial cargo transportation when delivering from Europe, we can note the leading role of two types of cargo transportation: road, which accounts for more than half of all commercial cargo transportation, and rail. You should also pay attention to the decrease in the share of road transportation in the last 2 years against the background of an increased share of rail transportation.
The crisis brought significant changes to the dynamics and structure of the market in 2009. Against the backdrop of declining demand for the entire range of transport and logistics services, there was a drop in the volume of operations and income of logistics companies, and competition increased. The main factor for the growth of the Russian transport and logistics services market in 2010 was the increase in cargo transportation volumes (primarily by rail) against the backdrop of rising tariffs.
Overall growth in commercial cargo transportation increased by 4.9% in 2011 compared to 2010. According to the indicators for the first half of 2012, stabilization is also observed and an increase in commercial transportation is projected by 2.4%, largely due to an increase in the share of road commercial transportation
The structure of the Russian commercial freight transportation market in Russia by mode of transport (in%) for the first half of 2012 is presented in the diagram (excluding industrial railway transport)
This chart clearly shows what was noted earlier - in commercial transportation, the main modes of transport are road and rail, which account for more than 95% of total commercial freight turnover. Therefore, when further analyzing the geographical factor of the transport services market, attention is focused on these types of cargo transportation. The share of air transport in the volume of commercial cargo transportation is very insignificant (0.03%), so in the future we will not focus our attention on air transportation.
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